6f61eac0-fa03-4f31-a316-397aef8ac713 28 3 5 decimal

&[DATE] &[TIME] - &[FILENAME]

Initial ISDR I 1 el S 1 el D 1 el R 1 el 41 mat 10200000041 mat ≡

Coeffs ISDR i s d r 41 mat 0.0001 0.0001 - 0.55 0.45 41 mat ≡

Markov ISDR recursive chain I t 1 + el S t 1 + el D t 1 + el R t 1 + el 41 mat i S t el * I t el * S t el s S t el * I t el * + D t el d I t el * + R t el r I t el * + 41 mat ≡ Infected Suceptible Deceased Recovered 41 mat ≡

Markov I 1 el 10 : S 1 el 20000 : D 1 el 0 : R 1 el 0 : i 0.0001 : s 0.0001 - : d 0.55 : r 0.45 : t 120 range : j 1 t rows range I j 1 + el i S j el * I j el * : S j 1 + el S j el s S j el * I j el * + : D j 1 + el D j el d I j el * + : R j 1 + el R j el r I j el * + : t j 1 + el j : t 1 el 0 : 61 line for t I augment t S augment t D augment t R augment t I S D R augment 51 mat 111 line :

Markov 5 el 0102000000120199806424019940161438019860383141581970282675312193901691396605187863412797113617650673551820051564612981062931361250924001964103923858641253375113369521862835141121758346081366657136082852910274471417326799437772115462632953277991612262095587820173261795657826181261695667827190261695677827200261695677827215 mat

Search ISDR week week Markov 5 el 11 row :

ISDR week inf'd sucep dead recov'd 15 mat :

Infected Markov 1 el : Suceptible Markov 2 el : Deceased Markov 3 el : Recovered Markov 4 el : 41 mat

medic ISDR week stack :

medic week inf'd sucep dead recov'd 10392385864125337525 mat

This Smath document is only Edu. A real model is possible from data collection, then optimised via more maths => "Minerr" applied in ODE... RemToDo: probably not possible Smath.

x c 10 x ≤ (x 20 ≤ (& cases :

Sanity check: I+S = 20010 26169567 + 7827 + 20010

x I Markov 11 el 1 col Markov 11 el 2 col x ainterp : x S Markov 21 el 1 col Markov 21 el 2 col x ainterp : x D Markov 31 el 1 col Markov 31 el 2 col x ainterp : x R Markov 41 el 1 col Markov 41 el 2 col x ainterp : 41 sys

x I x S x D x R Infected Suceptible Deceased Recovered 8 1 sys x I x c * x S x c * x D x c * x R x c * 4 1 sys