6f61eac0-fa03-4f31-a316-397aef8ac713 52 4 5 decimal

&[DATE] &[TIME] - &[FILENAME]

Markov ISDR epidemic chain ... [r+d Σ 1]

Initial ISDR I 1 el S 1 el D 1 el R 1 el 41 mat 10200000041 mat :

Coeffs ISDR i s d r 41 mat 0.0001 0.0001 - 0.45 0.55 41 mat :

Markov ISDR recursive chain I t 1 + el S t 1 + el D t 1 + el R t 1 + el 41 mat i S t el * I t el * S t el s S t el * I t el * + D t el d I t el * + R t el r I t el * + 41 mat ≡ Infected Suceptible Deceased Recovered 41 mat ≡

◄ ... select j 2 :

Markov t 119 range : j 1 t rows range I j 1 + el i S j el * I j el * : S j 1 + el S j el s S j el * I j el * + : D j 1 + el D j el d I j el * + : R j 1 + el R j el r I j el * + : t j 1 + el j : t 1 el 0 : 61 line for t 1 + I augment t 1 + S augment t 1 + D augment t 1 + R augment t 1 + I S D R augment 51 mat 31 line :

Markov 5 el 11020000002201998046340199401416480198603138515819702678263121939013916976051878627934181136176505516739200515646106212981031361250919642400113923858633754125123369521851416283131758346066578136146082852744791021517326797721943716462632779995321712262078209558183261778269565191261678279566200261678279567205 mat

Markov j el 1200002199803199404198605197026193907187868176509156461012509118586125218133460142852152679162632172620182617192616202616202 mat

Search ISDR week week Markov 5 el 20 row :

ISDR week inf'd sucep dead recov'd 15 mat :

medic ISDR week stack :

medic week inf'd sucep dead recov'd 20026167827956725 mat

This Smath document is only Edu. A real model is possible from data collection, then optimised via more maths => "Minerr" applied in ODE... The Markov model considers the population is healty. If part of the population is on the 20 weeks count-down from various medical conditions, the epidemic has less effect over the epidemic deceased. That's another kind of open statistics wrt [d, r]. About 1/3 world population is auto-immute to COVID-19 What's the point of 100% vaccination @ highest cost ? Since COVID-19, numerical data evaporate in the blue. Does that mean COVID-19 has infected any/all CAS ?

Infected Markov 1 el : Suceptible Markov 2 el : Deceased Markov 3 el : Recovered Markov 4 el : 41 mat

x I Markov 11 el 1 col Markov 11 el 2 col x cinterp : x S Markov 21 el 1 col Markov 21 el 2 col x cinterp : x D Markov 31 el 1 col Markov 31 el 2 col x cinterp : x R Markov 41 el 1 col Markov 41 el 2 col x cinterp : 41 sys

x I x S x D x R Infected Suceptible Deceased Recovered 8 1 sys

x I x S x D x R Infected Suceptible Deceased Recovered 81 sys

week explorer w 9 :

Search ISDR week week Markov 5 el w row :

week ISDR week stack :

week week inf'd sucep dead recov'd 92005156461062129825 mat

x c 10 x ≤ (x 20 ≤ (& cases :

x I x c * x S x c * x D x c * x R x c * w 25000 w 5000 - 2 2 mat 6 1 sys

infected x f x I :

Golden-Ratio search [min/max]

Code adapted from Valery Ochov Mathcad 11 f a b test TOL Extrema a b G 32 / b * 12 / a * - 12 / 5 sqrt * a b - (* + : y1 y2 ≥ (max in range ≡ y1 y2 ≤ (min in range ≡ x1 a b G eval : y1 x1 f eval : x2 b a G eval : y2 x2 f eval : 41 line iter 0 : iter 1000 < a b - abs TOL ≤ break test b x2 : x2 x1 : y2 y1 : x1 a b G eval : y1 x1 f eval : 51 line a x1 : x1 x2 : y1 y2 : x2 b a G eval : y2 x2 f eval : 51 line if iter iter 1 + : 21 line if while a b + 2 / iter 21 mat 71 line :

1. All modules/functions in "Symbolic" optimiz. 2. Once in target: shrink the range 3. respect the search y1≥y2≡"max in range" y1≤y2≡"min in range"

TOL 103 -^:

X f 1012 y1 y2 ≥ TOL Extrema 1 el :

◄  week of max infected X 11.13

Maximum evolution of the infected ... occurs @ week 11

x f x c * X X f + 20 red 1 5 mat 2 1 sys

infected
succeptible
deceased
recovered X I X S X D X R 41 mat 393880683602440341 mat