Chain Failure Weibull Analysis

Chain Failure Weibull Analysis - MC Conversion to SMATH - Messages

#1 Posted: 9/7/2018 2:02:40 PM
Norm Schutzkus

Norm Schutzkus

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I have tried to convert the attached MC15 worksheet to SMATH. I cannot work around the solve block (Maximize) successfully. I welcome the collabs review and recommendation(s).
Sincerely,
nas
File not found.File not found.
#2 Posted: 9/7/2018 2:19:42 PM
Norm Schutzkus

Norm Schutzkus

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Solve block.jpg

The solve block is in the "Weibull Distribution" area (collapsed).
nas
#3 Posted: 9/7/2018 4:45:21 PM
Jean Giraud

Jean Giraud

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Wrote

I have tried to convert the attached MC15 worksheet to SMATH.



Smath converts zero, absolute zero MCD.
You have to create the project from square one .
At least, you can plot 3 graphs
#4 Posted: 9/7/2018 6:26:00 PM
Norm Schutzkus

Norm Schutzkus

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If I force the shape and scale factors all seems to work. I just need help with obtaining these.Chain Failure Weibull Analysis Forced.sm (66 KiB) downloaded 28 time(s).
#5 Posted: 9/7/2018 10:06:47 PM
Norm Schutzkus

Norm Schutzkus

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Chain Failure Weibull Analysis Forced.sm (71 KiB) downloaded 34 time(s).

I noticed that my previous SMATH files lacked some narrative. Updated now.

Thank you,
#6 Posted: 9/9/2018 2:35:14 PM
Norm Schutzkus

Norm Schutzkus

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Chain Failure Weibull Analysis - 2.sm (52 KiB) downloaded 36 time(s).

Taking jmg's advice; started going thru the steps and found a function that didn't come over from MC that I used the wrong "Sum" function in SMATH. Worksheet function ll.W(....) now seems to work plotting varying lambda and beta (sheet attached). I still cannot determine/maximize the function, finding the optimim lambda and beta.

I welcome any suggestions.

nas
#7 Posted: 9/9/2018 8:57:40 PM
Alvaro Diaz Falconi

Alvaro Diaz Falconi

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Hi. Try this. Chain Failure Weibull Analysis - 3.sm (65 KiB) downloaded 37 time(s).

Alvaro.
#8 Posted: 9/9/2018 10:31:47 PM
Jean Giraud

Jean Giraud

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Wrote

I still cannot determine/maximize the function, finding the optimim lambda and beta.



Is that what you mean: that the n*F.W(x,λ,β) is the best fit to data {TY] ?
Very rarely, a model function can be declared exact. That is the case of all LS based methods.
I guess the data set [TY] can be fitted by many models, surely giving λ,β closely to Alvaro.
Easy to plot [TY] over the n*F.W(x,λ,β) ... module added .
Interesting but not of immediate understanding for the novice.

Cheers ... Jean
Opened in 6179, re-posted from same original.

Chain Failure Weibull Analysis - 3.sm (71 KiB) downloaded 45 time(s).
#9 Posted: 9/10/2018 6:20:39 AM
Martin Kraska

Martin Kraska

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Fit using Maxima's lsquares package. MSE() is the mean square error, which is minimized by Fit()

2018-09-10 11_11_54-SMath Studio 0.99.6671 - [Chain%20Failure%20Weibull%20Analysis%20-%203.sm_].png
Chain%20Failure%20Weibull%20Analysis%20-%203_Kr.sm (78 KiB) downloaded 48 time(s).
Martin Kraska Pre-configured portable distribution of SMath Studio: https://en.smath.info/wiki/SMath%20with%20Plugins.ashx
1 users liked this post
frapuano 9/10/2018 9:23:00 AM
#10 Posted: 9/10/2018 9:44:02 AM
Norm Schutzkus

Norm Schutzkus

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Alvaro, jmg and Martin, many thanks!

Martin's requires a newer version of SMATH installed, I'll have to request the upgrade to be installed.
#11 Posted: 9/10/2018 10:10:51 AM
Martin Kraska

Martin Kraska

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Wrote

Alvaro, jmg and Martin, many thanks!

Martin's requires a newer version of SMATH installed, I'll have to request the upgrade to be installed.



Should work with SMath build 6671 as well (latest stable with updated plug-ins), just ignore the complaints.
Martin Kraska Pre-configured portable distribution of SMath Studio: https://en.smath.info/wiki/SMath%20with%20Plugins.ashx
#12 Posted: 9/10/2018 12:40:07 PM
Jean Giraud

Jean Giraud

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Wrote

Martin's requires a newer version of SMATH installed,



Maybe NOT ... Maybe I'm too ignorant about Weibull.
What I understand: over 'T', you have observed cumulative failure, is it ?
From there you can approximate the probability of failures from the logistic Verhulst.
I would be curious you find simpler and more realistic and more immediate insight.
Done Smath 6971, should work in more recent SS.

Cheers ... Jean

Page0Weibull.sm (40 KiB) downloaded 36 time(s).

#13 Posted: 9/10/2018 10:10:19 PM
Jean Giraud

Jean Giraud

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Wrote

What I understand: over 'T', you have observed cumulative failure, is it ?



Not like said. The 'Y' data are the days between failure.
Refreshed and added the cumulative integration of the Verhulst fit.

Genfit Weibull.sm (45 KiB) downloaded 36 time(s).
#14 Posted: 9/11/2018 3:41:46 PM
Norm Schutzkus

Norm Schutzkus

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Thank you Jean, I have a lot to look over. I noticed that the MC file calculated a beta > than 1, which is a "wear-out" characteristic vs. the SMATH beta <1; "infant mortality". I found an earlier MC file that used a different method to find beta, and that too beta was < 1. Using excel, that was also in agreement; beta < 1. The values vary, the old MC file = 0.99, 0.98 for the SMATH file, and .99 for excel.

I use the files as a reference, being a novice using tools for stats. I did get a lot of new ideas and understand more using SMATH, which I am thankful to this collab.

Sincerely,

Norm
#15 Posted: 9/11/2018 4:03:52 PM
Norm Schutzkus

Norm Schutzkus

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Hello Jean, Beta will not calculate, I have the same SMATH version 0.99.6671. Maybe I'm missing a plugin?
#16 Posted: 9/11/2018 5:26:15 PM
Jean Giraud

Jean Giraud

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Wrote

"infant mortality"


... because there 3 kinds of lies:
1. Kid's white lie [Mamy, Mamy ... the cat did suck your last candy]
2. True lies [Politician's lie]
3. Statistics

What happens in the β "infant mortality" is consequence of
reflexivity in the function wrt parameters. Many models
can't be concluded by NO maths ... just manual from St. Patience !

If you stick with Weibull failure analysis, good luck.
In about ½ hr I found nothing from Gooling.

#17 Posted: 9/11/2018 6:24:22 PM
Norm Schutzkus

Norm Schutzkus

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Sorry Jean, your genfit file won't find beta. It works fine when I download, but fails when I open on my pc.

nas
#18 Posted: 9/12/2018 12:27:03 AM
Jean Giraud

Jean Giraud

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Sorry Jean, your genfit file won't find beta. It works fine when I download, but fails when I open on my pc.



1. The work sheet attached finds the β's of the Verhulst logistic function,
which corresponds to your collection. For the two parameters Weibull, we have
to scale the Y data to [0..1] and the X data to something else.
Your project up until now is just an undefined collection.
I will attempt a pure Weibull fit.

2. Can't understand it works fine from download but fails on your PC.
Like saying: moon is flat because she is flat as well as spherical
because she is spherical. Just circular like Shrodinger cat ...
hit the cat he is dead, hit again back live.

Cheers ... Jean

Stat Treasury_7 Weibull.sm (9 KiB) downloaded 29 time(s).
#19 Posted: 9/12/2018 12:55:35 AM
Jean Giraud

Jean Giraud

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Wrote

I will attempt a pure Weibull fit.



... here is a typical two parameters Weibull

Stat Treasury_7 Weibull.sm (18 KiB) downloaded 28 time(s).
#20 Posted: 9/12/2018 1:17:41 AM
Jean Giraud

Jean Giraud

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Wrote

... here is a typical two parameters Weibull



... too reactive for :Genfit Minimize.
Thus: simply manual fit by the look.

Stat Treasury_7 Weibull.sm (20 KiB) downloaded 39 time(s).
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